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What an Ox Can Teach Us About Smart Judgments
Imagine it’s the early 1900s, and you’re at a country fair. A British scientist named Francis Galton sees a contest: guess the weight of an ox, with the closest guess winning a prize. Nearly 800 people—farmers, butchers, casual fairgoers—submit their guesses. Some are livestock experts, others have never even seen an ox up close.
Galton, curious but skeptical, decides to calculate the average guess. He’s sure this random crowd will be wildly off. But the result stuns him: the crowd’s average guess is just one pound off the actual weight of the ox. The ox weighed 1,198 pounds, and the crowd’s average guess was 1,197.
The crowd had outperformed the experts.
This wasn’t just a lucky break. It was one of the earliest proofs of the “wisdom of crowds,” a phenomenon backed by countless studies. It’s been tested on everything from guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar to predicting stock market trends or election outcomes. When the range of options is defined, crowds tend to get it right.
But even more important: the crowd doesn’t just win when all choices are pre-defined. Collective intelligence also shines in complex tasks where possibilities are wide open—like diagnosing why a plane crashed, devising a new product strategy, or assessing your company’s health.
So, why does this happen, and how can you harness this power?
Why Group Intelligence Crushes Lone Expertise
It’s all in the math.
When a diverse group makes predictions or decisions, individual errors cancel each other out. Here’s why: each person’s input is a mix of knowledge (experience, intuition, insight) and error (biases, gaps, wrong assumptions). Gather enough of these inputs, and the errors diminish, leaving you with refined, actionable insight.
Sure, a single person might nail the answer occasionally, but that’s more about luck than skill. The real edge comes from harnessing the collective.
But don't make the mistake of just throwing people in a room and asking for their opinions. Don’t even think about it.
To truly tap into your team’s collective brainpower, you need to nail three essentials:
1. Real Knowledge, Not Fluff
Your people need some real, relevant knowledge or experience. You wouldn’t ask a bunch of toddlers to tell you the time if they don’t know what a clock is. Similarly, don’t ask your whole team who your next tax consultant should be if only a few people understand the tax code.
But when it comes to questions like “What needs to improve in our company?” or “How do we serve our customers better?” everyone’s got a piece of the puzzle. It might be a small insight or a big idea, but if it’s genuine, it counts.
2. Independence: Kill the Groupthink
Independence is non-negotiable. If people start chatting, debating, or nodding along to the loudest voice in the room, groupthink takes over, and diversity of thought disappears.
Say goodbye to endless meetings and brainstorming sessions. Forget the expert opinions. For collective intelligence to shine, your people need to think independently—without influence, without bias.
3. Diversity: The More Perspectives, The Better
Diversity isn’t just a checkbox—it’s a strategic advantage. You need different viewpoints, backgrounds, and experiences to get the full picture. Ask everyone from the new hires to the C-suite.
Don’t just rely on the usual suspects. True insights often come from unexpected places. Like pieces in a puzzle, each one is unique, but together they reveal a clearer picture.
Putting It All Together: A Blueprint for Change Makers
This might feel counterintuitive. Isn’t the CEO, the right consultant, or the “superstar” supposed to have the answers? Isn’t relying on an average just settling for mediocrity?
Not at all. The smartest person in the room is often the room itself.
Your team already holds the most complete picture of your organization’s health, strengths, and opportunities. Your job is to create an environment where their collective genius can thrive: foster real knowledge, maintain independence, and embrace diversity.
Bottom line: Don’t let a few loud voices steer the ship. Tap into the full power of your team. Management alone? They’re just guessing.
At Nyord, we’ve built our platform around these principles because we believe in the power of collective wisdom to drive real change. Ready to see it in action? Sign up for Nyord and discover how our tools can help you unleash your team’s potential.
